Rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia: climate vulnerability and adaptation
Dates: 2019-2023
Funding: ETH4D Doctoral Scholarship
PhD Student: Mosisa Wakjira
Principal Investigators: Peter Molnar, Johan Six
In countries such as Ethiopia, the smallholder farming system which accounts for about 95% of the cropland area in the country, is the backbone of the economy and people's livelihood. This farming system is mostly reliant on rainfed agriculture, and as such it is etxremely vulnerable to climate variability and climate change. The objectives of this research are to: a) analyze the timing of rainfall and its impact on crop yield, agricultural drought conditions, and change in aridity across Ethiopia, b) assess the vulnerability of the rainfed agricultural system, and c) evaluate possible scenarios to identify eff ective adaptation pathways that would maximize crop yield in Ethiopia. We conduct the research by combining data analysis, and crop-climate modelling, under current and future climate trajectories, to evaluate climate adaptation options.
Rainy season shifts affect crop yields
As a first analysis we are conducting an investigation of daily gridded rainfall (CHIRPS) to describe rainfall seasonality and its changes in time, and relate these to published annual cereal crop production. With this we aim to quantify to which extent crop yields are vulnerable under current climate in Ethiopia. First results focus on changes in rainfall onset, cessation, and the length of the growing period as well as its interannual variability. The strength of the statistical relations of these variables to cereal crop (maize, sorghum, teff, wheat) production is quantified to demonstrate which shifts in rainy season properties affect production. In a next step, the vulnerability of the rainfed farming system with regard to rainfall changes predicted by climate models will be examined.
Wakjira, M., Peleg, N., Anghileri, D., Molnar, D., Alamirew, T., Six, J., and Molnar, P. (2021), Rainfall seasonality and timing: implications for cereal crop production in Ethiopia, Agric. For. Meteorol., 310, 108633, external pagehttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108633.