Debris flows in the Illgraben in a future climate?
An interdisciplinary group of researchers led by Jacob Hirschberg and Peter Molnar produced a comprehensive analysis of possible climate change impacts on sediment yields and debris flows in the Illgraben in Switzerland (JGR Earth Surface).
By combining new climate change projections CH2018 for Switzerland, a state-of-the-art stochastic weather generator, and a conceptual geomorphic sediment cascade model, the authors were able to show that projected changes in precipitation and air temperature are likely to lead to a reduction in both sediment yield (−48%) and debris‐flow occurrence (−23%) in the basin caused by a decrease in sediment supply from hillslopes by frost‐weathering. Their work provides new insights into the effect of elevation on sediment production processes and underlines the reasons for the high uncertainty of sediment flux projections.
Hirschberg, J., Fatichi, S., Bennett, G. L., McArdell, B. W., Peleg, N., Lane, S. N., et al. (2021). Climate change impacts on sediment yield and debris‐flow activity in an Alpine catchment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 126, e2020JF005739, external page https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JF005739